Apple is unlikely to hit its sales target of 1 million Vision Pro headset sales in the first 12 months.
As the Financial Times reports, the complex design of the Vision Pro is causing major problems for manufacturers, and Apple is being forced to scale back its production forecasts.
The Vision Pro is being assembled by Chinese manufacturer Luxshare, and two people close to the company believe Apple is only aiming for 130,000 to 150,000 headsets in the first 12 months now, based on Vision Pro component orders with a couple of China-based suppliers.
The most problematic components to produce are also the most expensive—two micro-OLED displays and a curved "lenticular" lens. The micro-OLED displays are supplied by Sony and the defect-free yield is thought to be low. Terushi Shimizu, head of Sony’s semiconductor unit, has stated his company isn't prepared to invest heavily and ramp up micro-OLED production quickly because it's unclear how big demand will be beyond Apple's order.
If true, first-generation Vision Pro headsets will be hard to buy next year and could quickly become a collector's item. Apple is thought to be working on a second generation of the mixed reality headset with Samsung and LG, with a focus on lowering the price. However, Apple is apparently insisting on using micro-OLED for those headsets too, rather than considering cheaper alternatives, such as mini-LED.
We already knew the $3,500 Apple Vision Pro wasn't for us, but now it looks as though it won't be for anyone but the lucky few at the head of the pre-order queue. Mark Zuckerberg won't be one of them, and even Apple's own staff are skeptical about the device. We're still unclear as to whether the Vision Pro is an AR or VR headset, and probably won't know for sure until next year.