(Credit: MWC)
SpaceX says Starlink Mobile won’t always be limited to cellular dead zones in rural and remote areas. The satellite service for phones will eventually serve users in suburban and urban areas too, according to the company’s S-1 filing for SpaceX’s upcoming IPO.
The company writes: “While we expect Starlink Mobile service today to be most impactful for customers in remote areas uncovered by terrestrial mobile networks, as our constellation grows and our product performance continues to improve, we will compete to be the preferred connectivity experience to our customers no matter where they are located, whether in rural, suburban, or urban areas.”
The statement could spook traditional wireless carriers, which are already exploring similar, satellite-based services. However, the disclosure might be more about boosting SpaceX’s IPO than creating a realistic competitor down the line. Satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar notes that the S-1 filing often highlights SpaceX’s total addressable market (TAM), or the revenue opportunity the company could realize across its various businesses.
(Credit: SpaceX)The S-1 puts Starlink Mobile's TAM at $740 billion, but that number is based on serving the entire wireless market, including 8 billion mobile devices already connected on existing networks worldwide. Thus, SpaceX needs to frame Starlink Mobile as more than just a dead zone killer to justify the TAM. "But there’s nothing that suggests Starlink has ambitions to offer a terrestrial solution, or that it will succeed in the attempt to 'compete to be the preferred connectivity experience,'" Farrar tells PCMag.
More Modest Ambitions?
The filing mentions using next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites, along with radio spectrum acquired from EchoStar, to create a “connectivity solution on par with terrestrial mobile networks,” as SpaceX eyes 5G speeds of 150Mbps per user. But the S-1 acknowledges that Starlink Mobile will still be dependent on “successful partnerships with telecommunications carriers and spectrum licensees globally."
(Credit: SpaceX)A key hurdle is that the next-generation Starlink Mobile requires smartphone makers to adopt new hardware components and software that support the EchoStar radio spectrum. “We expect MNO [mobile network operator] partners, as major purchasers of mobile devices, to encourage or drive such adoption. There can be no assurance that these modifications will be adopted on our preferred timeline, or at all,” the company writes.
Another sign that Starlink Mobile has more modest ambitions is that the average revenue per user globally is estimated at $8, even though US phone bills are far higher. "This global average consists of a weighted average monthly ARPU of $18 in high-income markets, $5 in upper-middle income markets, $2 in lower-middle, and $2 in low-income markets," SpaceX says.
On its international strategy for Starlink Mobile, SpaceX says, “Until device manufacturers incorporate support for our international spectrum bands into future handsets, we will be unable to offer 5G-like direct-to-consumer service on our own international spectrum.” The filing also seems to shoot down SpaceX’s rumored ambition of creating a phone, noting, “We do not have direct contractual arrangements with handset manufacturers.”
(Credit: MWC)On top of all this, some telecom experts are doubtful that the next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites can serve urban areas, as the satellite beams will struggle to penetrate concrete-and-steel buildings. That said, SpaceX may have left the door open to combining Starlink Mobile with a ground-based cellular network, though it would require a significant investment.
In a September FCC filing requesting permission to operate 15,000 Starlink Mobile satellites, SpaceX told the agency that "SpaceX may deploy ground-based systems in the US, creating a hybrid satellite/terrestrial network to expand the coverage and capacity of these services." (Starlink Mobile currently spans about 650 satellites.)
This month, the FCC cleared the company’s acquisition of EchoStar’s spectrum, noting: “SpaceX must meet demanding standards to use its spectrum intensively and provide meaningful, reliable connectivity to the public—whether D2D (direct-to-device), terrestrial, or both—within years.”
But Farrar is doubtful SpaceX would pursue a cellular ground network, tweeting that such investment would run counter to the company’s own "repeatable business model," which starts with leveraging its reusable space rockets. “None of this is consistent with SpaceX building or operating a terrestrial wireless network,” he says.
In the meantime, SpaceX’s partner on Starlink Mobile, T-Mobile, has joined with rivals AT&T and Verizon to announce a joint venture that’ll develop multiple competitors in satellite-to-phone services—a move that even SpaceX seems to view as counter to Starlink Mobile’s ambitions.
T-Mobile’s new CEO, Srini Gopalan, has also gone out of his way to subtly downplay Starlink Mobile, which the carrier offers as T-Satellite. Last month, he said the service had seen lower-than-expected usage. On Monday, he added, “Just to give you an example, we look at our data in May, satellite usage is 0.0002% of our total network usage. That’s three zeros.”
Gopalan also argued that the satellite-to-phone market is a "fundamentally complementary category,” while noting, “Pretty much no one buys satellite standalone; they buy it as part of the premium package, which gives you a bunch of other benefits, global roaming, ad-free Netflix, etc.” In other words, a satellite phone service needs to be bundled with a traditional carrier service to appeal to consumers.
For now, Starlink Mobile has about 30 mobile network operators as partners and raked in $632 million last year from the mobile connectivity business, Farrar notes. SpaceX also says: "We charge MNOs either a fixed fee or a per-mobile user fee-based amount, which is typically passed through to the customer via the carrier as an 'add-on' feature."
The current speeds for Starlink Mobile have been estimated to reach only 4Mbps, limiting it to text messaging, and data for select mobile apps, including low resolution video calls on WhatsApp. Ookla analyst Mike Dano added the satellite-to-phone connections have only been occurring in areas without strong cell service. "For example, in March 2026, we recorded 0.46% of unique monthly users making those kinds of D2D connections in the US This figure is based on Speedtest users with Android smartphones that support D2D connections from Starlink, Skylo, or Lynk."