President Trump’s ban on the messaging app WeChat could spell doom for Apple’s iPhone sales in China, according to noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Kuo, who’s best known for predicting new iPhone features, gave his take on the impending ban in a research note seen by MacRumors. In a worst case scenario, Trump’s executive order could force Apple to pull WeChat across the iOS app store globally, causing worldwide iPhone shipments to fall by 25 to 30 percent.
“Since WeChat is very critical to Chinese users, integrating communications, payments, e-Commerce, social software, news reading, and productivity functions, we believe that the move will tank iPhone shipments in the Chinese market,” Kuo reportedly wrote in the note.
The ban could also hit consumer demand across the Apple ecosystem. Kuo is predicting a 15 to 25 percent decline on global shipments for other products, including the AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch and Macs.
Still, it's possible Trump’s executive order will only force Apple to pull WeChat from its US app store —not China, the biggest market for the messaging app. Under this scenario, Kuo predicts Apple’s global iPhone shipments would only fall between 3 to 6 percent.
Trump issued the WeChat ban last Thursday by signing an executive order that forbids US companies and individuals from making “transactions” related to WeChat. The White House claims the Chinese-developed app poses a spying threat to the US and its allies. However, it won’t be until Sept. 20 when the White House actually defines which transactions fall under the executive order.
As a result, it remains unclear if Apple will need to ban WeChat, or if the Trump administration will make an exemption. Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it was the White House’s goal to remove “untrusted” Chinese apps from US app stores. But he made no distinction on whether the removal should extent to US app stores serving other foreign markets.
So far, Apple has remained mum on whether it’ll follow Trump’s executive order or try to challenge it. The company doesn't break down iPhone sales by country, but the Chinese market makes up about 15 percent of Apple's total sales.
WeChat, on the other hand, has almost 1.2 billion users, most of which are based in China.
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