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The Starlink constellation has expanded dramatically in recent years, activating a milestone 10,000th satellite last week. But don’t expect that growth to continue indefinitely.
When asked in an interview with Time about how large the Starlink constellation might get, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell indicated that it would eventually plateau. “I don't think we'll have more than 15 or 20,000 Starlink satellites,” she said. “But, you know, keep in mind, we have a lot of different technologies,” she added, including a proposal for up to 1 million orbiting data center satellites.
In addition, SpaceX plans on launching a separate 15,000-satellite constellation to bolster its satellite-to-phone service, Starlink Mobile.
Still, her statement is raising eyebrows because the company previously filed regulatory requests for around 30,000 Starlink satellites. SpaceX has also continued to expand Starlink access around the world, turning it into a major player among global ISPs.
Aaron Burnett, CEO of Mach 33, a research and investment firm for space ventures, tweeted that Shotwell might be signaling that SpaceX is preparing future "V4" Starlink satellites with greater data capacity to serve more users. Or it might mean the company is prioritizing its orbiting data center ambitions.
A ceiling on the constellation would be welcome news for astronomers and environmentalists concerned about Starlink's growth and potential light pollution, though Starlink looks small compared with SpaceX's 1 million-satellite proposal for orbiting data centers.
Meanwhile, satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar says Shotwell’s statement shows that SpaceX recognizes “the reality that Starlink demand is not unlimited.” In recent months, the company has become even more aggressive in offering discounts and perks to attract new Starlink subscribers. Last month, SpaceX’s satellite internet system crossed 10 million active customers.
But to grow even further in the US and other developed markets, Starlink will need to compete with traditional ISPs, which can offer faster speeds at possibly lower monthly rates. SpaceX is preparing to offer gigabit speeds after the Federal Communications Commission cleared the company to operate 15,000 Starlink satellites with even more radio spectrum and at lower orbits, reducing latency.
Farrar estimates that 20,000 next-generation “V3” Starlink satellites should be enough to serve 200 million users worldwide. Meanwhile, others are speculating whether SpaceX might combine the Starlink satellite design with the orbiting data center satellites at some point.