(David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
It looks like the PC market may have finally experienced some growth in recent months, or at least stopped the bleeding, following nearly two long years of declining demand.
On Wednesday, research firm Canalys reported that PC shipments in last year’s fourth quarter increased 3% year-over-year, ending a streak of annual shipment declines that began after COVID-19-related demand for PCs went bust.
“Total shipments of desktops and notebooks rose to 65.3 million units,” Canalys said of Q4, with the growth occurring in notebooks at 4%. Shipments were down 1% for desktops.
Canalys attributed the growth to a “stronger holiday season compared to last year,” along with vendors freeing up inventory earlier in 2023, which led to more shipments in Q4.
(Credit: Canalys)However, not everyone agrees that the PC market returned to growth. Rival research firm IDC’s own estimates show that PC shipments fell in Q4, although only by 2.7% year-over-year, which “marginally surpassed” its own projections for the quarter. In the previous quarter, the PC market shrunk by 7.6%.
Meanwhile, a third research firm Gartner said the PC market was essentially flat in Q4, growing only 0.3% year-over-year to 63.3 million shipments.
Despite the different numbers, both IDC and Canalys expect the PC market to experience growth in 2024. “The PC industry is on a slow path to recovery as a device refresh cycle and end of support for Windows 10 will help drive sales in the second half of 2024 and beyond,” said IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani in a statement.
The other factor that could boost sales is the rise of generative AI. Companies like Intel and Microsoft are packing more AI-dedicated processing and programs into what they call “AI PCs.”
"While use cases have yet to be fully articulated, interest in the category is already strong,” said IDC analyst Linn Huang, who added: “As more of these devices launch next year, we expect a significant boost to overall selling prices."
Canalys also noted: “We expect one in five PCs shipped this year to be AI-capable, incorporating a dedicated chipset or block, such as an NPU (Neural processing unit), to run on-device AI workloads. Adoption will ramp up quickly thereafter, especially in the commercial sector, where the benefits of on-device AI related to productivity, security and cost management will become a key consideration for businesses.”