(Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Following two years of declining shipments, the PC market might finally see some growth next year as rumors about Windows 12 ramp-up.
In a new report, research firm Canalys projects PC shipments will grow 8% year-over-year in 2024 on vendors shipping an estimated 267 million units.
Canalys notes that PC shipment volume already appears to be on the upswing for the period between October to December. “The market is expected to return to growth of 5% in Q4 2023, boosted by a strong holiday season and an improving macroeconomic environment,” it says.
The PC market previously saw historic sales growth in 2020 and 2021, thanks to the pandemic, which fueled demand for laptops and PC building, despite a chip shortage and supply chain issues. But last year, the market dramatically began to cool with retailers overstocking inventory, forcing PC makers and chip companies to pull back on supplies.
(Credit: Canalys)It now looks like the market has started to stabilize. But Canalys is going a step further, and predicts significant demand for PCs, citing the emergence of companies, such as Microsoft and Intel, pushing AI-powered laptops.
“These initiatives will bolster refresh demand, particularly in the commercial sector,” says Canalys Analyst Ben Yeh. “The total shipment share of AI-capable PCs is expected to be about 19% in 2024. This accounts for all M-series Mac products alongside the nascent offerings expected in the Windows ecosystem.”
In addition, Canalys is betting Arm-powered Windows PCs from Qualcomm will fuel some customer interest next year. In October, Qualcomm debuted a new SnapDragon X Elite chip, which the company is hyping up as the fastest processor ever designed for laptops.
These predictions mirror those from rival firm IDC in August, though IDC only estimated 3.7% growth in 2024 to roughly 261.4 million units.
Not mentioned in Canalys report, but a potential driver of growth, is Windows 12. A new report from Taiwan’s Commercial Times claims Microsoft is preparing to release the OS next June, less than three years after the release of Windows 11. If true, then the arrival of Windows 12 could spark even more interest in Windows PCs next year.