Microsoft's announcement of Windows 10 for phones was a really good first step. If you look at my wish list of what I was hoping to get in the new OS, Microsoft hit some of the key points: a better browser in Spartan, Xbox integration, and "universal apps" that could help speed app transitions over to the new OS.
March 1-2: Hardware
I expect Microsoft to announce new phones for Windows 10 at the Mobile World Congress trade show. Right now, the Windows Phone lineup lacks widely available flagship phones. Microsoft's 41-megapixel camera technology dead-ended in last year's Nokia Lumia 1020 , and the 2014 flagship Lumia Icon was buried by Verizon. With healthy midrange and low-end offerings, Microsoft needs to announce some phones that will put Windows Phone 10 back on the map as an aspirational OS, not just as the best thing you can get under $100.Mid-March: U.S. Carrier Announcements
Since MWC is in Barcelona, I anticipate the new Microsoft hardware announcements will come without specific U.S. carriers or release dates. The carriers could wait a few days or weeks to announce which devices they're carrying, and that will be a real test for Microsoft. If it can't place its flagship device on more than one major U.S. carrier, we're unlikely to see its market share rise above its current 4 percent. Exclusives with AT&T and Verizon, negotiated from a place of weakness, have gotten Microsoft absolutely nowhere; the phones that have actually sold, like the Lumia 520/521 and Lumia 635 , have been on multiple carriers and virtual operators.
April 29: APIs and Apps
Hardware is one big Microsoft problem, but we also need to learn a lot more about how the Windows 10 app situation will shake out. Windows 10 operates across two incompatible architectures: the ARM system used in most phones and many small tablets, and the Intel chips in tablets and desktops. (That gap is what sunk Windows RT, which was unable to run older software.) It also has touch and non-touch modes, and small and large screen modes. How will the new APIs balance these different concerns so Windows Phone users can run the best, most powerful apps? How good will Xbox gaming on Windows Phone really be? And will Windows Phone finally get feature-complete apps for popular Web services? We'll find out at least some of that at Microsoft's Build conference in late April.Later: Launch Time
Showtime! Will the new Lumia 1030, 1120, Surface Phone, or whatever, be able to face up against the iPhone 6, Galaxy S6, and HTC One (M9)? We'll see when Windows 10 launches later this year. Hopefully, it'll get enough headway in front of Apple's traditional October announcement so all the air won't get sucked out of the proverbial room.For more, see the video below, as well as PCMag's hands on with Microsoft HoloLens and How Microsoft HoloLens Could Crush Google Glass.