I bet even Steve Jobs would agree that the hype surrounding the Verizon iPhone is ridiculous. It's just a phone, after all. As other pundits have suggested: perhaps the media is simply responding to its own echo chamber. But then what were dozens of people doing in my local Verizon store the day after the carrier sent out its surprise invitation? Were they lining up for a chance to pre-order a phone that might not even exist?
Look, it's not like Apple didn't want to deliver the iPhone on other carriers three years ago. I think Apple signed the unusual AT&T exclusivity agreement because the iPhone was an unproven product from a company that had no experience making phones. Having just one carrier did, I think, work to Apple's advantage. An innovative company with control-freak tendencies, Apple could easily control and keep track of the Apple/AT&T relationship. With Verizon added to the mix, a little bit of that control slips away.
Perhaps that's why this product roll-out is happening in New York instead of San Francisco. I can't remember the last Apple announcement to occur this side of the Mississippi. Apple either does an event with Steve Jobs as your mock-turtleneck-wearing MC or it quietly rolls out product updates with a press release and virtually no fanfare at all.
This event is so out of character that it can only mean one thing: Apple is scared. Oh, I don't mean rocking-in-a-corner scared. Instead, I think Jobs and co. now recognize and acknowledge the enemy: Android. Two years ago, Apple would likely have laughed off the upstart mobile OS. One phone and no prospects? A joke. As CES 2011 has shown, though, Android is officially a juggernaut. Every single new phone and almost all the tablets I saw at the show run some flavor of Android. Apple's iOS is, when you think about it, on just a handful of devices. Of course, those products own a significant amount of market share in their categories.
Apple may have wanted to wait until the summer to introduce the first Verizon phone and do it on its own turf with Verizon execs by their side. But they couldn't wait. By June the market will be flooded with Super Phones running Android 2.3 and Honeycomb (Android 3.0) tablets won't be far behind. Apple did not want to try shouting above this din.
No doubt Verizon, no slouch in the power department, put some pressure on Apple to really do things differently and let them steer the ship—at least a little bit. So we have an unveiling in Manhattan at Lincoln Center. No one knows if Steve Jobs will actually be on stage, on screen or there at all. If Jobs arrives and stands beside Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg, that will be huge. No one's spotted Jobs outside San Francisco in months. If he's busy traveling to New York, it could mean he's feeling stronger. No matter how you feel about Apple, that's a good thing. It would also mean that Apple's turning the page to a new chapter in its relationship with partners.
And that's why I don't think Steve Jobs is coming. He can't (or won't) give up that mystique. Look, as our Mobile Analyst Sascha Segan told me this week: This is just another iPhone—no big deal. If this is an LTE iPhone, I'd disagree, but if it's just a Verizon CDMA iPhone (yes, even if it's white), then Segan is right. Not a big deal. Which means Apple can turn its "magic" dust on the anticipated late January event, which is sure to feature an iPad 2—the iPad you've been waiting for. That's an event worthy of Steve Job's black turtle neck.
There is, by the way, one significant benefit to tomorrow's announcement. People will finally stop asking me, "when is the iPhone coming to Verizon?" For that, I am eternally grateful.
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