As I write this, 2010 still has a good 40-or-so days left in it. Anything could happen. Apple could deliver a surprising new product, Microsoft could make a big leadership change, Cisco could belatedly realize that UMI is a terrible name for a product. However, I tend to think that the big stuff is done; people are shifting into holiday mode, which makes it a good time to ponder the year that was. As always, there are winners and losers. While some of 2010's biggest tech winners and losers are obvious, other selections may surprise you.
Winner: Apple
To use a sports metaphor, Apple was strong out of the gate this year with its landmark release of the Apple iPad. The company and product instantly defined a category and left every other tablet-building competitor rethinking their plans. The product is selling like hotcakes, and there are more built-for-iPad apps every day. Oh, and let's not forget that the company completely reimagined not one, but two major products: the iPhone and Apple TV. Please, please don't whine to me about iPhone 4 antenna issue: Apple owned it, addressed it and everyone, including consumers, moved on.
Losers: Magazines
Sorry, but even with all that iPad success, I don't see the platform saving this industry. Instead, many magazines have folded or collapsed into stronger online brands (Newsweek and Daily Beast). Meanwhile, a handful of physical print titles like Glamour, Vogue, and Women's Day are thriving.
Winner: HP
The first half of the year started off strong for HP. I loved that it rescued Palm and the Palm Web OS from almost certain oblivion. Sure, it got knocked a bit off-course by the Mark Hurd Fiasco (see below) but the Leo Apotheker pickup for CEO seemed canny. His software and services experience could position the company for app-based success.
Loser: HP
Yes, I know, I just said HP was a winner, but the hardware manufacturer's waffling on tablets would be funny if it weren't so ridiculous. While the world waits for HP to deliver the potentially exciting Web OS-based HP Slate, HP quietly delivered a Windows 7-based Slate. HP has not marketed the product and is determined to have everyone ignore it. The only reason it released it is, I think, because promises were made. The Slate, after all, was the very same tablet Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer held up on stage almost a year ago at CES 2010.
Loser: Mark Hurd
The guy engineers one of the industry's biggest acquisitions (HP eats Palm) only to trip up on expense report mistakes and whispers of marital infidelity. Certainly Hurd is guilty of poor judgment. Hurd's wholly unexpected departure (read ousting) left everyone wondering how HP would respond. The reality, of course, was that HP's sheer mass and inertia made Hurd's exit little more than a pothole in HP's road map.
Winner: Palm Product Fans and Owners
It's alive! As noted above, the Palm brand and its most intriguing technologies are now part of a bigger brand. For devoted fans, this is a great news. Now, if HP could just hurry up that Web OS development before it's too late.
Winners: Samsung and HTC
These two companies are delivering some of the best and brightest (literally) mobile phones on the market—and on a variety of platforms. Better yet, consumers seem to love them. HTC, in particular, is following good with better, delivering three Editors' choice-winning handsets in less than two months (the myTouch 4G, HTC Surround and HTC Desire).
Loser: The Kin
This misbegotten product wasn't as bad as all the negative press it got, but the Kin wasn't all that good either. The Kin's biggest problem, however, was Microsoft. It swallowed up the Sidekick manufacturer Danger and then let it develop the Kin outside the Windows Phone group. I was at the launch and saw the disconnect in real-time. What a mess. Recent possible resurrection aside, the Kin had one of the shortest technology life spans in recent history.
Microsoft, RIM and 3D TV
Winner: Microsoft
Microsoft can't really get any tablet mojo going (I'm not counting convertible PCs and touch-screen all-in-ones), but otherwise this has been a solid year for the Redmond giant. Windows 7 sales have been strong and it has effectively erased all memory of V…er…what was it called again? In the battle of motion-based gaming systems, Microsoft has won. Sony's wand-based system is cool and accurate, but Microsoft's Kinect is better, more extensible technology. Plus Microsoft has effectively imbued the Kinect with the necessary sex appeal lacking in Sony's odd-looking wands. And let's not forget Windows Phone 7. This platform was a long-time coming, but I think it was worth the wait. It's too early to call Windows Phone a success, but I applaud Microsoft for getting such a polished mobile platform out the door in 2010.
On the Bubble: RIM
Research in Motion occupies an odd spot on this list. I can't decide if it's a 2010 winner or loser. It handily recovered from the disastrous Storm release to deliver market-segment-friendly Torch. I'm currently carrying around this touch-screen, QWERTY-keyboard device and quite enjoy it, except for the nagging frustration that RIM couldn't put a 1 GHZ processor and higher-rez screen in the device. As the company's newest flagship product, it should have pushed the envelope a bit more. On the tablet front, RIM's 7-inch PlayBook looks exciting, but I worry about the company introducing yet another mobile OS. That means that there are, essentially, no apps for it (it certainly won't run any apps written for BlackBerry OS 6). RIM watched its market share erode in 2010, but I'm still not ready to call it a loser. 2011 will be a very important year for the company.
Loser: Nintendo
Oh Nintendo, how did a company that produced one of the best products ever stumble so badly? Sony and Microsoft not only entered the motion-control gaming arena, but effectively changed the rules of the game. If it were only Sony and its wand-driven system, Nintendo execs could argue that Sony's derivative, but Microsoft's controller-free technology is really a different animal. You could, I guess, argue that now we simply have three motion-based consoles. That's true, but only one is still stuck in 480p-resolution world. I have a Wii at home and when we use it on my 52-inch, 1080p LCD, the graphics look bad. Nintendo's big innovation for 2010: The Nintendo 3DS is a gimmick that I'm sure no one will want. As it is, many of Nintendo's core customers are dropping even their Nintendo DSi's for the gaming-ready iPhone 4 or iPod touch.
Loser: 3D TV
Did you know 2010 was the year of 3D HDTV? So was 2009. In fact, I was talking about it back in 2008. To be fair, commercial 3D TVs, Blu-ray players and content did make it to market this year and some of it is impressive. Still, after the initial rush of interest, consumers lost interest. Why? Expensive hardware, uncomfortable glasses and, most importantly, very, very little content. 3D TV can and will become a winner, but probably not until 2013 or 14.
Winner: Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg
People can moan all they want about Facebook's privacy foibles, it doesn't change the fact that Facebook is on a tear. 2010 has been a huge year. 500 million users, document sharing, Graph API, redesigns, better mobile tools, location services and now e-mail. With each update, Facebook suffers the usual fusillade of privacy questions and concerns; however no one walks away from the service which could be valued as high as $40 billion. Even the sometimes scathing portrait of Zuckerberg in the movie The Social Network only served to make Zuckerberg more of a hero to some and the service's meteoric success more astonishing. I expect more of the same from Facebook in 2011.
Google, Android, B+N
Loser: Google
Hard to believe, but this has not been a great year for Google. No nothing calamitous has befallen the search giant. Instead, it's doing just fine. It has a solid, multi-faceted business and reports incredibly strong earnings every quarter. On the other hand, the competition has finally woken up. Microsoft's Bing is eating away at Google search market share, causing Google to do something it's never really did before: change. Not every change, like the new image search, has met with plaudits. 2010 was also the year Google pulled the plug on the innovative but inscrutable Wave. Plus, have you looked at Google Buzz lately? Neither have I. On the OS front, Android is a huge success, but that's because of all the partners that have built phones around the free, open source mobile OS. Google search gets more visibility on those phones, but even that isn't always assured (see Verizon's Samsung Fascinate). Personally, I've been wondering where the Google Chrome OS is. Some thought we might see tablets running the browser-based OS this year. I think not. We might see something running the Chrome OS in 2011, but then why is Google working so hard on Android 2.3 (Ginger) and its follow-up Honeycomb: Both are designed with tablets in mind.
Winner: Android
If you'd asked me in early 2009 whether or not Android would succeed as a mobile platform (wait a minute, I think someone did), I would have laughed: One product in 12 months. Oh, how things have changed. Android not only has significant marketshare, it has mindshare. People ask me every day about which Android handset to buy. Who would have ever thought we could have average consumers asking about open-source software. A word of caution for Google and its Android minions: 2011 and beyond may not be so rosy if Google can't get its partners in line. Less messing with the interface and no more old version of the OS on new products, please.
Winner: Barnes & Noble
As shocked as I am at B+N essentially walking away from e-ink, I have to hand it to them for the rapid pace of innovation, especially from a traditional brick and mortar company. Amazon and its super-successful Kindle e-reader clearly woke the company up. While it remains to be seen if its bet on an all LCD, touch-screen-based e-reader will pan out or if consumers will realize that it's actually an under-powered tablet, Barnes & Noble is providing the model for other old-school retailers who want to compete in the new, digital world.
Loser: MySpace
The social network site has lost purpose, sense of direction and is apparently hemorrhaging money. Now it's partnered with its biggest rival, Facebook. I wonder if it can survive 2011.
Winner: Twitter
Twitter has yet to find a truly effective business strategy, but I think it's close and I like how the leadership is willing to keep trying.
Losers: Third-Party Twitter Apps
Twitter's been making some big changes to its third-party API—the one partners use to build their own Twitter-based apps and tap into the high-speed Tweet stream—effectively swinging around its Twitter partners like a tiny dog on a chain. Plus, the company has gone all Microsoft on them and built much of what was once third-party functionality right into the Twitter homepage. 2011 could be a tough year for third-party-party Twitter apps.
I could go on, but I'd have to write a book to be truly comprehensive. Drop into the comments so you can continue where I left off.