Android will continue its climb toward mobile operating system dominance, capturing about 40 percent of the market in the second half of 2011, according to Thursday estimates from IDC.
IDC pointed to the "significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphones strategies," as the key to its success. Android will likely have 38.9 percent market share in 2011, growing to 43.8 percent by 2015.
Windows Phone 7, meanwhile, will benefit from Microsoft's partnership with Nokia, and capture the number-two spot, as well as 20 percent market share, by 2015, IDC said. This echoes numbers the firm published in March, prompting doubts from those who questioned the release of such specific numbers four years in advance.
Given that Nokia is not expected to release any Windows Phone 7-based devices until 2012 and the Mango update isn't coming until later this year, however, it's unlikely that the Microsoft platform will see any major gains this year, IDC said. Windows Phone 7 will likely have 3.8 percent market share this year, climbing to 20.3 percent by 2015.
That growth will come at the expense of Symbian, which IDC said will slip from 20.6 percent market share this year to 0.1 percent by 2015 given that Nokia is moving its support from Symbian to Windows Phone. However, since Nokia has committed to support Symbian until 2016, the platform will remain "on par with its competitors" for the time being, IDC said.
Other OSes should take note, though. The slip in Symbian's dominance presents a "huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing," IDC said.
That could include Apple's iOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry platforms, though IDC predicted modest growth in the months ahead. Both platforms will also likely experience a small market share decline in the coming years, though overall shipment volume will grow.
Apple's iOS should have 18.2 percent of the market this year, dropping to 16.9 percent (and staying at number three) by 2015. BlackBerry will drop from 14.2 percent to 13.4 percent in the next four years, and maintain its number-four position.
Earlier this week, Apple showed off a preview of iOS 5, which is expected to debut in the fall (hopefully, for Apple fans, in conjunction with the iPhone 5).