Android is poised to become the number one mobile operating system in 2011, while the recent Nokia-Microsoft deal could propel Windows Phone to the number two position by 2015, according to Tuesday data from IDC.
IDC predicted that Android will capture 39.5 percent of the global mobile OS market in 2011, followed by Symbian with 20.9 percent, Apple's iOS with 15.7 percent, and RIM's BlackBerry with 14.9 percent.
"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number two position in 2010," Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, said in a statement. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."
By 2015, Llamas said that Android will still be number one with 45.4 percent of the market, but Symbian will dip to only 0.2 percent while Microsoft's Windows Phone captures the number two spot with 20.9 percent.
"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," Llamas said. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform."
In early February, Nokia said it would pursue a long-term relationship with Microsoft, and make the Windows Phone 7 operating system the foundation for Nokia mobile phones. Nokia chief Stephen Elop recently said that Windows Phone-based Nokia devices are currently in the works and will be available next year.
For now, however, Windows Phone will likely only capture about 5.5 percent of the market this year, IDC said.
In January, Nielsen found that about 40 percent of those who purchased a smartphone in the last six months opted for an Android-based device. But iOS still held the mobile OS lead with 28.6 percent of the market, while Android had 25.8 percent and BlackBerry had about 26.1 percent.