The first iPad went on sale about 10 months ago, and for months there have been rumblings that the iPad 2 would be revealed. Even though the next-generation iPad has yet to debut, Tech Crunch's MG Siegler is reporting that "iPad 3" will likely be unveiled this fall.
Siegler expanded on a post from tech blogger and Apple aficionado John Gruber who speculated the fall launch of the iPad 3. Gruber's post, which he later clarified was a "guess," effectively fanned the rumor flames.
The Apple rumor mill is pervasive; it consistently churns out wild, unsubstantiated rumors about phantom products, and Apple rarely, if ever, comments on these rumors. Let's take apart this latest one:
Apple generally sticks to a one-year product update cycle. Earlier this week the Wall Street Journal said the iPad 2 was in production, and last week a "Reuters eyewitness" claimed to spot the new iPad at the launch of News Corp.'s iPad-only newspaper, The Daily. The first iPad arrived on stores April 1, 2010, so given Apple's pattern, it's likely a new iPad is coming in the next couple of months.
This pattern is consistent. In April and May, rumors will likely heat up about an iPhone 5. Then in July and August sources start reporting about refreshed iPods in September. Apple's product cycles are pretty predictable.
Now let's look at what's been said about "iPad 3." Siegler says he heard from a "very good source" that Apple has a "big fall surprise" planned, and that it's probably a third version of the iPad. He says his "information isn't based on a guess."
So is the iPad 2 coming soon? Probably. Is iPad 3 coming this fall? So far, only on the word of two bloggers.