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Buying Guide: Blu-ray Is Doomed
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- Blu-ray Is Doomed
- Continued
Blu-ray is doomed. I came to this conclusion shortly after reading John Dvorak's thoughtful dissection of the HD DVD versus Blu-ray imbroglio. It was right on the money in all ways but one: Dvorak didn't anoint a winner; he thinks it'll take a couple of years to shake out. I think he's wrong.
I didn't always feel this way about the high-def wars. HD DVD and Blu-ray are, in some ways, so similar that I assumed no self-respecting consumer would notice or care about the minute differences. Both store between 30 and 50GB of data. Both will offer enhanced end-user interaction. Both, but especially Blu-ray, will offer improved content protection (no copies, please). But as the fracture between the HD DVD-ites and Blu-ray-ees continued, I realized that consumers would be forced to make a choice.
Most of my coworkers and fellow tech watchers handicap the race at dead even. Each technology has suffered its own series of setbacks and delays. The players are only just now arriving, and content is virtually nonexistent. They also see good chances for big HD content success because people have been buying HD TV sets for years, with little good content to play on them. This is only partially true. While HD sets have been around for years, early devices were inordinately expensive, and HD TV stations began showing up only in the past two years. I'd argue that 2005 was the breakthrough year for HD sets. So while demand for HD content may be pent up, there aren't that many consumers in the pen.
Late last month, Toshiba finally shipped the very first HD DVD drive. From what I hear, the first run was in the thousands. Those players disappeared almost instantly. I guess those 10,000 consumers also bought all six of the HD DVD titles available from Warner and Universal. This does not sound like a resounding success.—Continue reading...