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Will Windows 8 Destroy the Consumer Antivirus Market?

 & Neil J. Rubenking Principal Writer, Security

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Microsoft showed off Windows 8 this week at its BUILD conference and revealed quite a bit about what we can expect. Among the many revelations was the news that Windows Defender will be expanded to offer full protection against all sorts of malware, on par with Microsoft Security Essentials, which PCMag analyst Michael Muchmore said "obviates the need for a separate AV program."

But does it really? I asked experts from over a dozen major security companies and got a wide variety of responses.

Some Vendors Unworried

"McAfee supports Microsoft's efforts to make its operating systems more secure," said Gary Davis, director of consumer product marketing at McAfee. "We are working closely with them on several of the Windows 8 security enhancements, and we expect that Windows 8 will help make McAfee's products even more effective. While antivirus on the desktop is an important element of protecting users, protection against proliferating threats must also include security for applications, operating systems, websites, Web applications, the cloud, and mobile devices, among others.  We believe the global need for security is unmet and only going to grow, and that the world is inherently more secure with a robust choice of security vendors and technology options."

Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer at F-Secure Corporation, thinks it may not matter all that much. "By the time Windows 8 has a significant marketshare," said Hypponen, "it might very well be that we see more need for antivirus on platforms like Android than Windows. Remember, XP still has almost 50% market share, more than 10 years after it was released. And Android will become the most common operating system on the planet sooner or later."

Beth Jordan, vice president of NorthAmerican Communications for AVG, thinks Microsoft's move poses no threat to third-party security vendors. "Consumers have always shown a strong affinity for third party software when it comes to security tools. It is these niche companies that drive the continuous innovation. When it comes to security consumers want choices and brands they can use with confidence and trust."

Alex Eckelberry, vice president and general manager for Security Software at GFI Software, is equally unworried. "There will always be people who will opt for a free product," said Eckelberry, "and there are those who will prefer the enhanced functionality and technical support of a paid product. The fact that a free product is now baked into the OS will certainly raise eyebrows among antivirus companies (and potentially antitrust litigators) and it may have an impact on user purchasing behavior, but a pre-installed antivirus product is a far cry from the type of robust solutions you see today."

He went on to observe that "there is an entire financial ecosystem based around antivirus. For example, 'tech benches' (Geeksquad, etc.) make a handsome profit on selling users antivirus." Eckelberry concluded, "In the end, all a user needs is one bad infection to change their mind about their antivirus protection."

In the opinion of John Gable, head of consumer products for Check Point Software Technologies, Microsoft hasn't gone far enough. "Any improvement in security is a step in the right direction," said Gable. "Malware is fast evolving, and consumers need more protection. However, one critical area that Windows is still lacking… is a powerful and easy-to-use two-way firewall. Currently, Windows only has an active inbound firewall on by default. While users can turn on their outbound firewall, they will quickly be overwhelmed by alerts. Minimum security requires an effective inbound and outbound firewall that works silently in the background to stop Internet attacks at the front door and catch thieves on the way out."

Not surprisingly, Check Point's ZoneAlarm Antivirus + Firewall includes precisely this kind of protection.

About Our Expert

Neil J. Rubenking

Neil J. Rubenking

Principal Writer, Security

My Experience

When the IBM PC was new, I served as the president of the San Francisco PC User Group for three years. That’s how I met PCMag’s editorial team, who brought me on board in 1986. In the years since that fateful meeting, I’ve become PCMag’s expert on security, privacy, and identity protection, putting antivirus tools, security suites, and all kinds of security software through their paces.

Before my current security gig, I supplied PCMag readers with tips and solutions on using popular applications, operating systems, and programming languages in my "User to User" and "Ask Neil" columns, which began in 1990 and ran for almost 20 years. Along the way, I wrote more than 40 utility articles, as well as Delphi Programming for Dummies and six other books covering DOS, Windows, and programming. I also reviewed thousands of products of all kinds, ranging from early Sierra Online adventure games to AOL’s precursor Q-Link.

In the early 2000s, I turned my focus to security and the growing antivirus industry. After years of working with antivirus, I’m known throughout the security industry as an expert on evaluating antivirus tools. I serve as an advisory board member for the Anti-Malware Testing Standards Organization (AMTSO), an international nonprofit group dedicated to coordinating and improving testing of anti-malware solutions.

The Technology I Use

Much of the testing I do, particularly testing with real-world ransomware, is just plain dangerous. To perform such tests safely, I sequester them inside virtual machines managed by VMWare Workstation. For cross-platform testing, I use a MacBook Air, a Google Pixel 4, and a 6th-generation iPad.

I rely on my Delphi coding skills to create and maintain small applications. These include programs to check whether an antivirus correctly handled the malware it detected, launch dangerous URLs and record the security program’s reaction, and analyze the malware that I collect for use in testing. I also wrote a tiny browser and text editor for use in testing security apps that have predefined reactions for known products.

I do my writing and research on a Dell OptiPlex desktop, relying on Microsoft Word (my fingers know all the shortcuts). Many of my articles include charts and analysis; Excel is my go-to for those. When work hours end, though, I escape the bounds of Microsoft and Windows. There’s an iPhone in my pocket, I relax with my oversized iPad, and my Kindle Oasis is always loaded with the best science fiction and fantasy.

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