(Credit: Microsoft)
UPDATE 12/5: Microsoft says it will offer a Windows 10 Extended Security Update (ESU) program to individuals and businesses for up to three years, though pricing has not been announced.
Original Story:The Windows 10-pocalypse is a short two years away. On Oct. 14, 2025, Microsoft will stop issuing security updates for Windows 10 PCs, at which point most of the world’s PCs—about one billion computers—will be running a dead operating system, like Windows XP. And most of those computers can't upgrade to Windows 11.
Microsoft Is Abandoning Most PCs on the Planet
Half of the readers of my Windows Intelligence newsletter are still using Windows 10 on their primary PC. The one billion estimate comes from two sources: Microsoft, which has said there are more than 1.4 billion Windows PCs, and Statcounter, which shows that the vast majority of PCs on the planet—more than 70%—run Windows 10.
Worse yet, this isn’t like when Microsoft stopped supporting Windows 7. Those PCs could upgrade to Windows 10, but this time around, many Windows 10 PCs don't suport Windows 11, at least not officially. If you can't afford to buy a new PC, you'll be left out in the cold after Oct. 14, 2025. From a security perspective, it’ll be as if you were using Windows XP or Windows 7.
Will Microsoft Extend the Deadline?
"That’s the debate of our age,” Paul Thurrott, a journalist who’s spent decades covering Microsoft and owner of Thurrott.com, told me.
Thurrott pointed out that Microsoft extended support for both Windows XP and Windows 7, although support for Windows 7 only covered businesses that paid extra every year. “Honestly, Windows 11 adoption is less than I'd have thought, especially in businesses. That could cause [Microsoft] to continue support for Windows 10," he said.
I asked Microsoft for a comment on its plans, and a spokesperson said the company had “nothing further to share at this time” other than what's on the lifecycle page.
(Credit: Microsoft/Chris Hoffman)Can Businesses Pay for a Stay of Execution?
With past versions of Windows, Microsoft has offered businesses an Extended Security Updates (ESUs) program. Organizations could pay for up to three years of extra security updates for Microsoft products, at an increasing cost each year.
Michael Cherry, an analyst at Directions on Microsoft, an independent organization that advises businesses on Windows licensing, told me that Microsoft hasn’t announced ESUs for Windows 10. “The final decision will likely be a result of feedback from organizations with Enterprise Agreements" regarding where they are in terms of migrating to Windows 11, he said.
Still, he doesn’t see ESUs as the optimal solution and recommends businesses upgrade to the new operating system. “ESUs are expensive and do not offer a guarantee that Microsoft will be able to address and fix all vulnerabilities in older code without seriously affecting how features work; and Microsoft in the past has chosen not to fix a vulnerability due to the fixes' negative impact on the underlying OS operation,” Cherry said.
I’ve always wondered why Microsoft doesn’t offer these extended security updates to consumers, too. Although most Windows users wouldn’t pay for extended security updates, people should be able to make that choice, just like businesses.
Cherry doesn’t think so. In fact, he says Microsoft shouldn’t even offer them to businesses, much less consumers. “I don’t think ESUs should be offered to anyone. I think they offer the illusion of security on software that, frankly, has been deprecated and is no longer receiving the attention it needs from developers who have moved on to work on a new code base.”
What Happens If You Just Keep Using Windows 10?
Many people will wonder whether they can get away with using Windows 10 after Oct. 14, 2025.
“It’s almost a guarantee that something bad will happen," according to Thorin Klosowski, security and privacy activist at the Electronic Frontier Foundation. "We know this because Windows XP received patches well after support ended for extremely critical issues, like WannaCry or the bug they patched two years after WannaCry, which was many years after they said they were done releasing security updates," he said.
"There will be security holes, and if they’re big enough, I wouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft decided to tackle them, even after support ends." But, Klosowski added, "there’s no guarantee Microsoft will bail people out."
Exactly how dangerous it is to run Windows 10 past its supported time likely depends on what you use your computer for. Klosowski pointed out there’s a difference between a PC you use to occasionally stream videos and one you use to run a business or do government work.
It probably won’t become instantly dangerous on the end-of-support date, according to Klosowski, but “there’s a potential for a cascade of quirks to pop up,” he said. For example, will the built-in Microsoft Defender antivirus stop getting updates, too?
Many PCs Can 'Unofficially' Run Windows 11
One reason this transition is so jarring is that most PCs have no official upgrade path to Windows 11 given the OS's strict hardware requirements.
Except…does Windows 11 have those strict hardware requirements, really?
Unofficially, there are a lot of ways around them. You can upgrade an unsupported PC to Windows 11, and many people have. Microsoft warns that there may be “damages to your PC due to lack of compatibility” and that “your PC will no longer be supported and won’t be entitled to receive updates” if you do this.
(Credit: Microsoft)But a few years after the release of Windows 11, many people have now upgraded unsupported PCs to Windows 11 with no problems. Klosowski said he upgraded an old Surface Book to Windows 11 and it’s running fine, and he recommends people who want to keep old Windows 10 PCs in service start there.
I asked Paul Thurrott what he’s heard from his readers. “Regarding unsupported PCs running Windows 11,” he said, “very little in the way of actual issues.” He’s heard of a watermark appearing on some desktops warning that the PC is unsupported, but he’s never seen it himself.
For many people, jumping through hoops to upgrade old Windows 10 PCs to Windows 11 may be the best move two years from now.
Of course, you could also install Google’s ChromeOS Flex or desktop Linux on those old PCs. They aren’t great options for people who depend on Windows software, but they do make it possible to extend the lifespan of those PCs and keep them out of dumpsters.
What's the Future for Your Windows 11 PC?
Microsoft hasn’t offered a ton of details about what the future has in store for Windows 11. Officially, it falls under Microsoft’s Modern Lifecycle Policy, but the only thing we know is that Windows 11 releases will continue getting security updates for two years from the last yearly release. Windows 11 version 23H2 will likely get security updates until October or November of 2025. And then… that’s it.
I don’t think that’s good enough—especially not in a world where Google is committing to supporting Chromebooks for 10 years of security updates and Pixel 8 phones with seven years of security updates after their release.
Yes, if Microsoft releases a 24H2 update in 2024, that will extend the support lifespan until October 2026. And I certainly expect Microsoft to do that. After all, the company hasn’t even announced that there will be a Windows 12. But, crucially, nothing else is set in stone.
If Microsoft wants to minimize e-waste, it should focus less on mice made with 20% recycled ocean plastic and more on extending the lifespan of a billion still-useful Windows 10 PCs.