AI programs like ChatGPT hold the “potential to significantly disrupt labor markets,” according to Goldman Sachs. But don’t expect the technology to necessarily come for your job.
Researchers at the investment bank estimate in a new report that globally “generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation."
“We find that roughly two-thirds of US occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI, and that of those occupations which are exposed, most have a significant—but partial—share of their workload (25-50%) that can be replaced,” adds the report, which was first noted by The Financial Times and has since leaked online.
The study goes on to estimate “one-fourth of current work tasks could be automated by AI in the US.” The sectors facing the most impact in the country include office administrative support, legal professions, architecture and engineering, along with the life and physical sciences and business and financial operations. Meanwhile, professions in manual and outdoor labor should experience the least impact.
However, the rise of “generative AI” programs like ChatGPT won’t necessarily replace most jobs. Instead, the report projects that the vast majority of professions will simply incorporate AI technology to help boost productivity among workers.
“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” the researchers wrote.
The report find that only 7% of current US employment could be totally substituted with AI, while 63% of profession would involve AI technologies complementing the work. A remaining 30% would be unaffected.
Even for workers who do lose their jobs to AI programs, Goldman Sachs anticipates that many workers will find “new occupations” that emerge from the growing AI adoption, which promises to boost productivity across numerous economic sectors.
“The boost to global labor productivity could also be economically significant, and we estimate that AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%,” the researchers added.
The Goldman Sachs report arrives days after ChatGPT’s developer OpenAI conducted its own study, which found that generative AI programs might disrupt 19% of the jobs in the US. Careers involving computer programming, writing, language translations, and accounting could see the most impact, but the study also couldn't account for several factors, including generative AI’s propensity to make mistakes.