Follow the money. Recent stock analysis shared by Axios points to a potential release of Grand Theft Auto VI in 2024.
In recent growth projections following its $12.7 billion acquisition of Zynga, Take-Two Interactive (which also owns GTA developer Rockstar) suggests a 14% annual growth rate through 2024.
That’s a substantial growth number and "there are only a handful of titles that can ... provide management with the confidence to put out such a strong guidance," according to a Jefferies analyst quoted by Axios. Another analyst closed that loop and suggests it's GTA VI.
Cowen’s Doug Creutz translated the numbers, which anticipate some $9 billion in bookings (read: gaming-related transactions), into “a likely GTA 6 launch in FY24.”
These latest hints line up with previous financials hinting at GTA VI's launch window. A Securities and Exchange Commission filing in May 2020 detailed large marketing spend through the end of Take-Two’s 2024 fiscal year. While that report suggested a 2023 release of GTA VI, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic may have pushed the launch window back. (Similar financial details helped predict the launch of Red Dead Redemption 2, so there is some precedent here.)
The GTA franchise is due for a new release. It’s been over eight years since the introduction of GTA V, which launched five years after GTA IV. While GTA Online has continued to offer new experiences and updates to the game over the years, Take-Two and Rockstar went a whole console generation without releasing a new installment. Instead, they worked on updated versions for the new platforms, such as the incoming Xbox Series X and PS5 ports, and re-releases of older titles.