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Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 memory kits have fallen in recent weeks, possibly due to investors selling shares in memory makers after Google announced its TurboQuant memory compression algorithm. However, as the Financial Times reports, those cost savings may be short-lived.
TurboQuant is more of a proof-of-concept than a proof-of-capability, but it made headlines after researchers claimed it could reduce the amount of "working memory" an AI model requires by at least 6x. That coincided with OpenAI canceling its massive UK Stargate project, which would have required up to 8,000 GPUs—and enormous amounts of memory. If it's not going ahead, that's a big drop in demand, which could open up supply and production capacity.
Indeed, prices for DDR5 memory kits are down by up to 30%, but it may not last. Demand for memory remains astronomical, with Samsung Electronics reporting $50.4 billion in revenue from its memory division in Q1 2026, "marking all-time highs for both DRAM and NAND," according to Counterpoint Research. As TrendForce notes, "the recent declines in retail pricing largely reflect softer consumer momentum, rather than a definitive turn in overall demand."
Samsung Security analyst Lee Jong-wook also tells TechRadar that "more efficient models [like TurboQuant] tend to lower overall costs and, in turn, drive greater demand for AI computing. Rather than reducing semiconductor demand, such optimized models are being used to deliver higher-performance AI services with the same chip resources."
So, even if shareholders jumped the gun and dumped stock ahead of what they saw as impending price drops, the memory crunch could worsen if TurboQuant is anything as capable as the researchers claim it could be. To see real price drops, we're going to need either a major AI bubble pop or extra production to come online. The latter won't happen until 2027 at the earliest. As for the former? Your guess may be as good as mine.