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Memory price rises are still on the rise, with some kits now almost 200% more expensive than they were at the start of the summer. However, new TrendForce data suggests the effects will be more obvious next year, with laptops, smartphones, and more set to face price increases.
As TechPowerUp notes, TrendForce's numbers paint a stark picture. Memory shortages will see smartphone production drop by 2% year on year in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth. Statista tracks 2024 smartphone production at around 1.2 billion units, so we're talking a cut of 10s of millions of smartphones.
Cheaper models will be hit hardest, since their margins are smaller, giving manufacturers less room to absorb price increases for materials. TrendForce reports that the overall increase in price could be as high as 10% with some smartphones. TechPowerUp speculates that may result in industry consolidation next year as smaller providers struggle to get the supplies they need to produce their devices at scale at an affordable price.
(Credit: VCG via Getty Images)The notebook market may struggle even more, though. Memory and storage prices typically make up between 10 and 18% of a laptop's manufacturing cost, but that could spike to 20% or higher if DRAM chip prices continue to rise. That could see notebooks prices rise up to 15% year on year, making it harder to sell new models. Buyers on tighter budgets may turn instead to the second-hand market, in turn driving up prices there.
Existing issues in the notebook market will only compound the issue. Increased device lifespan through right-to-repair laws and better battery lives have extended the usual upgrade cycle for consumers, lowering notebook demand in recent years. Shaky supply lines and turbulent trade agreements make shipping laptops to other markets a difficult task for manufacturers, too.
As a tertiary effect, TrendForce also predicts a slowdown in monitor shipments by 0.4% in 2026, after earlier estimates tipped 0.1% growth year on year.