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Generative AI will almost certainly have a positive economic impact while "fears of large-scale technological unemployment" are "probably overblown," according to new report from Google.
Google has invested billions in these technologies, including its Gemini chatbot, and we expect the company to introduce more AI-based products and features across search, the Pixel lineup, and more at its I/O conference next month.
So perhaps it's not surprising that Google is arguing that embracing these AI products doesn't have to come at an economic cost. "There is no straight line between the diffusion of a powerful technology and unemployment," it says. "If generative AI can take over a quarter of a job's tasks, for example, we shouldn't automatically expect employment in that profession to fall by 25%."
It cites the radiology industry as an example. A decade ago, widespread use of AI improved image detection while employment increased 3% amid a global shortage, the report says. (A March 2024 Harvard study found AI can actually harm radiologists' performance.)
More broadly, "health and wealth have increased alongside technological progress," the report says. The global median income has risen 150% since 1990, infant mortality has dropped, and air pollution deaths have declined while more people have access to clean water than ever.
(Credit: Google)The report was written by Andrew McAfee, a researcher at MIT who is currently Google's Technology & Society Visiting Fellow. McAfee worked closely with four Google employees as "core contributors," and interviewed another two dozen as part of his research. Just four interviewees are from outside the company.
McAfee's colleague at MIT, Darren Acemoglu, disagrees with McAfee's optimism. He found a direct correlation between automation and inequality, which he expands on in his recent book.
Yet McAfee argues that AI will help with wage inequality because "it's particularly effective at improving the performance of entry-level employees." He only concedes that "new technologies bring challenges as well as benefits," and that "the long-run overall effect of tech progress has been hugely positive."
The key to avoiding economic collapse will be "prompt and effective reskilling efforts," the Google report says. "More than 85% of total US employment growth since 1940 has come in entirely new occupations." Google announced a $75 million fund last week to help train workers at organizations like Goodwill on AI tools.