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The latest advancements in AI have caused many to wonder if the technology will eventually doom us all. But a survey of hundreds of AI experts predicts the chances of artificial intelligence destroying humanity is actually quite small, at about 5%.
The findings come from AI Impacts, a think tank based in Berkeley, California, that reached out to over 20,000 experts who had published papers in the past year. It received input from 2,778 researchers, who were asked for their predictions on the future of AI development. In addition, 1,321 researchers were asked for the probability that AI would lead to the extinction or severe disempowerment of the human race.
The experts gave “a median 5% chance” that AI would cause human extinction. “Mean responses indicated an even higher risk, suggesting a nearly one-in-six (16%) chance of catastrophic outcomes—the same odds as dying in a game of Russian roulette,” the think tank says.
(Credit: AI Impacts)Although a majority of the respondents rated the extinction risk low, AI Impacts notes: “One in ten respondents put at least a 25% chance on extremely bad outcomes like human extinction, with 1% of respondents thinking there was at least a 75% chance of such outcomes.”
How the experts envision AI causing humanity’s extinction is less clear. But the survey also polled the researchers on the various ways artificial intelligence could harm society. A large number of participants flagged AI producing false information, manipulating public opinion, and helping authoritarian regimes control society as key concerns.
(Credit: AI Impacts)A large block of researchers also said they worry about AI systems being harnessed to create powerful tools such as engineered viruses, accidentally causing a catastrophe, and accelerating income inequality as potential threats.
The other noteworthy part of the survey is how it asked the AI community to predict when the technology could perform tasks, such as producing a top 40 pop song, writing a best-selling book, and even folding laundry. The results show that many experts predict AI has a 50% chance of achieving such milestones within the next decade, if not sooner.
(Credit: AI Impacts)“Experts now see a 50% chance of AI models outperforming humans in every task by 2047, assuming no major disruption to scientific activity — just over 20 years from now,” AI Impacts adds. “Notably, this estimated date is 13 years sooner than the date arrived at by a similar survey in 2022, in which respondents estimated such AI would not arrive until 2060.”