I'm on the record as having never been a fan of browser plugins and proprietary "standards." And with the number of browsers I have installed on multiple platforms, the need to update any given browser's version of Flash Player pretty much every time I start up a computer is becoming an increasing nuisance.

But when you consider that Flash is installed on 98 percent of Web-browsing computers, and that 85 percent of the most heavily visited sites use it, it's hard to deny that, like it or not, Flash is a Web-browsing standard. Today, with Adobe withdrawing future support for mobile Flash, we saw the beginning of the end, but don't expect the technology to disappear in a flash, as it were.

Warning Signs
Even while emphasizing this 98 percent browser penetration, Adobe has been making a push for HTML5 development tools, highlighting its new tools' ability to target sites to multiple mobile devices. So perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise that the company would discontinue Flash support on those mobile devices. The upcoming Adobe Edge tool, still in development, is basically a Flash-building tool that outputs HTML5 rather than actual Flash.

Edge lets Web developers create "those little gems" that have spruced up animated logos and other striking and interactive Web page elements. The widely used Dreamweaver Web development tool, too, now can build sites using HTML5 mainstays like the <video> and <svg> tags, and supports the standard's companion page-design language CSS3.

HTML5 Still Has a Long Way to Go
I'm thrilled about the non-proprietary future of HTML5, but it will take time before the hundreds of billions of sites already out there have updated to HTML5. And people tend to forget that the standards themselves don't move as quickly as many would like. Anyone remember how long it's been since we've had a new HTML version? HTML4 was officially published by the W3C in 1997—that's 14 years ago!—and its successor still isn't firmly in place.

Sure, you can watch some YouTube videos in a browser that supports the right combination of HTML5 features, but video in HTML5 just isn't there yet. Features that major content providers need, such as monetization, subscriptions, content protection, and adoptive bandwidth handling just aren't there yet, though Adobe itself is attacking this problem, with HTML5 video features in its Flash Media Server 4.5.

A Gift to Apple
In the end, Adobe's withdrawal from supplying Flash for mobile devices is a great gift to the Apple ecosystem of iPads, iPhones, and iPod touches. Competing mobile platforms will lose a big advantage over these iOS devices. The irony, of course, is that this gift comes to a company that publicly slapped Adobe in the face!

In his blog post on the mobile Flash withdrawal, Adobe's vice president and general manager of Interactive Development, Danny Winokur, writes, "Our future work with Flash on mobile devices will be focused on enabling Flash developers to package native apps with Adobe AIR for all the major app stores." But sometimes I just want to view the MLB.com site, rather than having to install, optionally pay for, and launch a separate app, as I have to on Apple's iPad. Many smaller sites, like those for hotels and other travel sites, can only be viewed if you have Flash capability.

What About Android?
I use an Android tablet, and its ability to display Flash sites is one of the major attractions of the platform for me. Whenever I've used an iPad for an extensive period, I've gotten frustrated with how many sites didn't display correctly. But Adobe isn't in the dark about the kind of dominance the iPad holds in the tablet market.

One can only imagine Google's (non-public) reaction to today's Adobe news. Not only was Flash a buying point for Android mobile devices, Flash player was built into its Chrome browser—despite Google being arguable the biggest promoter of HTML5. Winokur states that Flash development will emphasize 3D hardware-accelerated gaming and premium video. But 3D hardware acceleration has already shown up in HTML5, and as I mentioned, Adobe itself is working on ways to do premium video in HTML5.

So, while today's announcement on the face of it may seem like a clean break and the end of Flash as we know it, what happens from here will be anything but instantaneous, and even Adobe's seemingly clear message leaves a good deal of ambiguity. Winokur's closing remark that "There is already amazing work being done that is pushing the newest boundaries, and we can’t wait to see what is still yet to come" gives you some idea of the company's lack of a concrete vision.

For more from Michael, follow him on Twitter @mikemuch.