The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 55.4 percent in 2010, and while the Android operating system is expected to see major gains in the coming years, no one mobile OS is expected to dominate the market, according to IDC.
In the first half of 2010, vendors have shipped 119.4 million smartphones, or 55.5 percent more than what they shipped during the first half of 2009. In a Wednesday report, IDC said it expects shipments to hit 269.6 million by year's end, compared to 173.5 million in 2009. This is about 10 percent higher than IDC originally estimated.
The jump comes amid the launch of several new phones like the BlackBerry Torch, the EVO 4G, and the iPhone 4.
The Android OS is a "wild card" and deserves close observation, said Ramon Llamas, an IDC senior research analyst.
"Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be," Llamas said in a statement. "In addition, users have quickly warmed to Android, comparing it to iOS due to its ease of use and a growing mobile application storefront."
IDC predicted that Android will jump from 16.3 percent market share in 2010 to 24.6 percent by 2014, chipping away at the share currently held by Symbian, BlackBerry, and Apple's iOS. But despite its potential gains, "no one smartphone OS will dominate mobile phones in the way that Microsoft has with Windows on the personal computer," IDC said.
Symbian, which is popular overseas but not in the U.S., will likely maintain its number one global standing by 2014, though IDC predicted an 18 percent drop in market share.
The release of Windows Phone 7 later this year, meanwhile, will likely help Microsoft "regain some of the share it has lost over the past two years," IDC said. The firm predicted a jump of 6.8 percent in 2010 to 9.8 percent in 2014 for Windows Mobile.
BlackBerry's share will remain relatively constant, while iOS will decline from 14.7 percent to 10.9 percent by 2014, IDC said.
In terms of the overall market, IDC said the smartphone market will increase 24.5 percent in 2011, but will start to decline over the next five years.