It's way too easy to write epitaphs for BlackBerry maker Research in Motion, given its utterly awful performance last quarter. In summary: Nobody's buying PlayBooks, and too many of RIM's new users appear to be going for low-cost devices in developing markets. While BlackBerry 7 phones are selling, they just haven't set the market on fire.
But RIM is not dead. RIM could come back. The company has a strategy; it just has to execute. That's been the trick, of course: the PlayBook was a great idea, but so bungled at launch that it squandered its many advantages. Here's a five-point plan that could make RIM much more relevant in 2012.
1. Fix the PlayBook: The good news about the miserable PlayBook launch is that since nobody else has yet delivered a hugely successful 7-inch tablet; there's still room for a winner there. The PlayBook was released embarrassingly incomplete, most notably missing PIM and email functions. It looks like the "PlayBook 2.0" software coming out next month will be what PlayBook 1.0 should have been. RIM should go beyond the intangible software upgrade and slightly rev the device itself—maybe just in price or storage—to give the product a new start.
2. Deliver a great QNX Bold: One great phone can save a company. That phone must be a Bold: a slab-style BlackBerry with a great keyboard and a luxurious feel. This form factor is the ne plus ultra of BlackBerryness. This phone must come out soon, and it must not suck. It must have BES email, a terrific Web browser, and maybe, just maybe, hot apps ported over from Android. And it must run QNX, RIM's next-generation operating system for the 2010s, not the warmed-over 1990s-era OS that is BlackBerry 7.
3. Repair, or abandon, App World: The BlackBerry app browsing experience is incredibly bad, and various issues—pricing, payment, APIs and the market itself—have driven away many developers. Make the darn thing Web-based and quick, or just outsource it to someone like GetJar, which knows what it's doing. As part of the BlackBerry app renaissance, RIM should go out there and start aggressively, proactively repackaging popular Android apps for the QNX Android Player at no cost to the developers.
4. Perform data cap judo: There's a lot of moaning and groaning over data caps right now, especially as networks get faster. RIM is just now starting to market the fact that its phones use a lot less data than competing smartphones. Now it needs to translate that into savings for consumers. The best idea is to convince carriers to establish special, less-expensive BlackBerry data plans: 5GB of Android data may be $50, but "5GB" of compressed BlackBerry data could run $35.
5. Ally with Google: Several pundits have suggested Microsoft buy RIM, but I'm more intrigued by this idea. Google's Android devices have had real trouble breaking into the enterprise market because they don't have a clear tie to any well-known server software, and there's just too much confusion around manageability.
RIM and Google have a common ground in Java, which is the foundation for both BlackBerry and Android apps; heck, RIM is in the middle of writing an entire Android virtual machine for QNX devices. And no Android phone manufacturer has managed to make a truly successful Bold-format phone. (Sorry, Moto.)
By allying with Google, RIM could provide BES hooks for Android devices and anoint the QNX platform as a sort of "Android Pro." The two companies could then sell a mix of consumer Android devices and "pro" BlackBerries to business customers, along with profitable servers. The alliance would then be well-equipped to face down Microsoft, which will be pushing a pure Microsoft Exchange solution for businesses.
RIM doomsayers should remember: although the company is on a downward trend, RIM is still making a profit and selling millions of BlackBerrys. This isn't Palm, which couldn't sell a Pre to save its life. And RIM's QNX seems more mature than Nokia's stabs at Maemo and MeeGo. This thing could still turn around, although I think RIM only has about a year to make that transformation happen.