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Prepare for Self-Driving Cars by 2025

 & Chloe Albanesius Executive Editor, News

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Back to the Future II predicted flying cars by 2015 (not to mention hoverboards), but we might have to instead settle for self-driving cars.

According to a new report from IHS Automotive, semi-autonomous vehicles will likely be on the road before 2025, while fully self-driving cars should be shuttling people around by 2035. The firm predicted that the number of self-driving cars will jump from about 230,000 in 2025 to 11.8 million in 2035 - 7 million with driver controls and 4.8 million fully autonomous vehicles.

"In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035," IHS said. By 2050, nearly all cars will have some sort of self-driving component. About 29 percent of those will be in North America, followed by China at 24 percent, and Western Europe at 20 percent, IHS said.

As is often the case with new technology, price is often a deterrent (hello, 4K TVs). IHS said that by 2025, self-driving tech will likely add between $7,000 and $10,000 to a car's sticker price, but that should drop to about $5,000 by 2030, and $3,000 in 2035.

Why opt for a self-driving car? "Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs, although other cars will crash into SDCs, but as the market share of SDCs on the highway grows, overall accident rates will decline steadily," Egil Juliussen, principal analyst for infotainment and autonomous driver assisted systems at IHS Automotive, said in a statement. "Traffic congestion and air pollution per car should also decline because SDCs can be programmed to be more efficient in their driving patterns."

Software glitches and hackers, however, will be a big concern for self-driving cars. There's also regulatory issues, something officials are already investigating.

In August, Nissan pledged to have a self-driving car by 2020, while Toyota and Audi showed off their self-driving vehicle tech at CES 2013. Cadillac has also pledged to have cars with semi-autonomous driving technology on the road by mid-decade, while Mercedes and Nokia have also partnered on maps for self-driving cars.

Google has also been a major player in the self-driving car effort, toodling around Silicon Valley in a tricked-out, autonomous Toyota Prius. Also in August, reports surfaced that Google, having failed to reach a deal with a major automaker, would make its own vehicle, but nothing has been announced.

For more, check out Will Google Make Money Off the Self-Driving Car?

About Our Expert

Chloe Albanesius

Chloe Albanesius

Executive Editor, News

My Experience

I started out covering tech policy in DC for The National Journal, where my beat included state-level tech news and all the congressional hearings and FCC meetings I could handle. I later covered Wall Street trading tech before switching gears to consumer tech. I now lead PCMag's news coverage.

My Areas of Expertise

Getting my start in DC means I still have a soft spot for tech policy; Congressional hearings can sometimes be as entertaining as a Bravo reality show, for better or worse. But PCMag is all about the technology we use every day, as well as keeping an eye out for the trends that will shape the industry in the years ahead (or flop on arrival). I've covered the rise of social media, the iOS vs. Android wars, the cord-cutting revolution that's now left us with hefty streaming bills, and the effort to stuff artificial intelligence into every product you could imagine. This job has taken me to CES in Vegas (one too many times), IFA in Berlin, and MWC in Barcelona. I also drove a Tesla 1,000 miles out west as part of our Best Mobile Networks project. Of late, my focus is on our hard-working team of reporters at PCMag, guiding and editing their robust coverage.

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