It's starting to look like the AT&T/T-Mobile merger may not go through, which is a great boon for American consumers. But that doesn't mean T-Mobile will just go on like before. If the merger fails, the carrier's parent, Deutsche Telekom, will probably go shopping for other buyers that won't incense the Department of Justice quite so much.
There aren't that many companies in the market for a $39 billion wireless carrier, but they're out there. Here are some of my assessments of the top competitors; feel free to disagree in the comments below.
They Won't Buy It, But You Had To Ask
Sprint. Let's just take this off the table. Sprint doesn't have enough money to buy T-Mobile, and anyway, if Sprint is spending a lot of money on anything, it will be sorting out its complex relationship with Clearwire. Sprint has also been burned before when trying to integrate a technologically dissimilar network (Nextel's), and the government is pretty clear that it doesn't want to see a reduction in national competition from any T-Mobile sale. All signs point to no.
Apple. Ever since before the first iPhone came out, people have been speculating about whether Apple would finally give iPhone owners a true end-to-end Apple experience. AT&T's service has always been the least-liked thing about the iPhone in the U.S., and actually running a telecom network could let Apple show the world how cell phones are supposed to work. This is unlikely to happen, though. Apple doesn't tend to make big acquisitions, and the company has historically stayed away from providing "pipes" on its own.
Google. Unlike Apple, Google is toying with being an ISP in Kansas City, KS. And its purchase of Motorola has shown some desire to emulate Apple's end-to-end model. But I don't see this happening either. Google's successful Android business relies on it not competing with its customers, and becoming a wireless carrier would make conversations with AT&T and Verizon just too uncomfortable.
Who Might Really Buy T-Mobile
Comcast, Time Warner and Cox. Cable companies have toyed with becoming wireless networks for years now, with most of their efforts ending up in semi-failed partnerships with Sprint and Clearwire. But now Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-Verse are moving in on their core turf, which means the cable guys really need to fight back. None of the cable companies may have the money to buy T-Mobile on their own, but they've shown a willingness to band together in the past. A bonus: They already own some wireless spectrum.
America Movil. Why should the New York Times be the only American icon rescued by Carlos Slim? Owned by the richest man in the world, America Movil is the world's fourth-largest mobile operator and already has a foothold in the U.S. through its ownership of Tracfone/Net10/Straight Talk. If T-Mobile is indeed America's value player, it could have some synergies with America Movil's existing offerings. Also, Slim loves telecom.
Wind Telecom. This Russian-owned mega-carrier recently invested in a new Canadian carrier called WIND Mobile that runs on the same spectrum and technology as T-Mobile USA. A purchase of T-Mobile would increase its economy of scale and vault it into becoming a true global force across several continents. Wind also owns major carriers in Russia, Egypt and Italy, among other places. Watch for the Congressional hearings that would result when a "valuable national security network" is bought by a bunch of Russians who also happen to operate a cell-phone network in North Korea.
"Investors." Their names don't matter, and they usually don't mind if they stay out of the news, anyway. The deep-pocketed VC crowd will take a gamble on anything they think can make money. T-Mobile USA's profit has been declining, but it's still a profitable business, and maybe there's someone out there—say, an ex-carrier executive—who thinks he can run it better than DT has done.
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