Apple's iPhone is undoubtedly popular in China; the May release of the white iPhone 4 nearly caused a riot at the company's Beijing store and full iPhone 4 launch last year attracted long lines and scalpers. Even the iPad 2 launch had its casualties.
Apple might want to bulk up on its security now because if recent reports are true, Apple will release two new iPhones in China via China Telecom by the end of October. The company has also reportedly inked a deal with China Mobile for the device.
A deal between Apple and China Telecom is "imminent ... paving the way for the carrier to participate in the iPhone 5 launch in the fall," Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White wrote in a Wednesday note to investors.
Citing Chinese Web site Sohu.com, White said that launch will probably include the updated iPhone 5 and a simplified "mini" iPhone that's more affordable and geared toward emerging markets.
"Essentially, this potential 'Simplified iPhone 4' would be a more economical version of iPhone to target a broader customer base in developing countries such as China, allowing for an expanded market opportunity," White wrote.
Reports of a smaller iPhone first emerged earlier this year.
China Telecom currently has 108.4 million wireless subscribers, or 12 percent of the country's users. About 13 to 15 million of those customers use high-end devices, representing a possible revenue opportunity between $8-9 billion, White speculated.
"We view this as the most reasonable near-term addressable market opportunity for Apple's iPhone. However, if Apple offers a more economical, 'Simplified iPhone 4,' the opportunity with China Telecom could be much larger," he wrote. "For example, if we assumed China Telecom's entire subscriber base of 108.4 million users could afford an iPhone (either version) we estimate the opportunity at $30 billion that assumes a lower ASP from a Simplified iPhone 4. Longer term, if we assume China Telecom's entire subscriber base could afford a full priced iPhone, the opportunity is closer to $68 billion."
That would take some time, however. Sales in China represented 13 percent of Apple's revenue in the most recent quarter, but "we believe the opportunity for Apple remains in the early stages."
Apple started selling the iPhone via China Unicom in November 2009. Recent reports, meanwhile, suggest that Apple has finally inked a deal with China Mobile—for an iPhone that runs on the carrier's fourth-generation TD-LTE network.
In the U.S., the most recent iPhone rumors tipped an October release date for the iPhone 5 rather than September. Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu also reiterated recently that the device will have an edge-to-edge screen, dual-core chip, and no 4G LTE.
PCMag mobile analyst Sascha Segan isn't placing any iPhone 5 bets; he recently begged us all to Stop the iPhone 5 Rumor Insanity. But for more, see the "8 Likely iPhone 5 Rumors, and 2 Wild Ones" slideshow below, as well as "Six Amazing Phone Technologies We Want in iPhone 5."