The AT&T acquisition of T-Mobile will reshape the wireless industry in the U.S.A. Who wins and who loses in this $39 billion purchase? We won't really know for years, but here are some educated guesses.
The Winners
AT&T. This is a huge win for the carrier which would become the nation's largest. It would get better coverage, a better HSPA+ network, more spectrum, 34 million more customers, and the ability to eliminate an opponent.
Deutsche Telekom. T-Mobile's owner has been struggling with how to turn around the number-four carrier, which has been losing customers recently. Now, instead of owning all of a struggling fourth-place player, DT will own part of a triumphant top dog. That should look good for the bottom line.
Verizon Wireless. If this merger goes through, it'll be hard for the government to refuse Verizon buying up other smaller carriers, at least until it gets to the 130-million-customer mark that AT&TMobile will reach. Verizon would probably rather compete with another behemoth rather than fight a price war against value players, and the company has faith in its ability to build a superior network.
Apple and Apple fans. Apple gets 34 million more potential customers for its iPhone and iPad, without having to sign a new carrier deal. And 34 million people get access to iPhones without having to switch carriers.
The Losers
Sprint. An optimistic view of this merger for Sprint is that as the last remaining big value player, they're going to pick up a lot of T-Mobile customers that jump ship. That may be true, although the customers they'd pick up would be T-Mobile's least profitable ones. But Sprint is really stuck in the middle now between two vast behemoths and a bunch of little, low-cost carriers. Sprint also has a 4G problem: it's dependent on the organizational mess that is Clearwire. It isn't clear whether it's sticking with WiMAX or going to LTE, and what its future path would be in either case.
Cricket, MetroPCS, and US Cellular. These three carriers have doggedly stuck to their independence. But as AT&T and Verizon become ever-larger, it becomes harder to sustain a non-national carrier. The "Little Three" need to band together or die.
Google. AT&T's CEO Ralph de la Vega once expressed a deep suspicion of Android, and he's only allowed the OS onto his network locked down and muzzled. T-Mobile has always been cozy with the Google folks, and they'd lose the only US carrier willing to release developer-model GSM phones on its network.
Handset manufacturers other than Apple. Their list of customers just went down by one—and it may go down by more. Here in the U.S., handset makers sell their phones to carriers, not to consumers. Phone makers will have one less outlet for their innovations.
T-Mobile employees. One major way any merged company finds savings is through reducing redundancies, and employees of the smaller company will probably be more likely to be found "redundant" by an AT&T-dominated management. Expect major layoffs.
Consumers. With fewer choices in the wireless marketplace, consumers will see fewer new phones, higher prices than if the merger hadn't happened, and lower-quality customer service. Sorry, everybody!