Microsoft said yesterday that it had shipped more than 2 million Windows Phones, but the company couldn't guarantee that a single one had actually been bought by a consumer. Microsoft's evasiveness on sales figures makes Windows Phone's position look very weak, especially after the debacle of the Microsoft Kin.
Here's the difference: When Microsoft says "sold," the company means "sent to carriers or licensed by manufacturers." But the carriers and retailers could send the phones back, or stash them in warehouses until they can figure out what to do with them.
That's exactly what happened to the Kin. Verizon committed to buying thousands of Kin phones, but couldn't actually sell most of them to humans. So the Kins languished in a warehouse somewhere until Verizon resurrected them as dumb texting phones, burning off the inventory at low prices just to get the phones off the carrier's hands.
That has actually resulted in a great consumer value: the Kin is a terrific texting phone for the price you're paying. But it's safe to say that platform has no future.
Microsoft's fake numbers on Windows Phones are worse than no numbers, because by sending out fake numbers, they get people talking about why Microsoft is using fake numbers. It looks like Microsoft has something to be ashamed of.
Compounding the problem, Microsoft has been sending around quotes that seem designed to lower expectations for Windows Phone 7 sales. The company is now touting "customer satisfaction and active developer investment" as gauges for Windows Phone's success.
A Slow Start Isn't FatalIt could very well be that Windows Phone is a successful long-term platform off to a slow start. Microsoft is right that customer satisfaction matters, and products don't have to be best-sellers straight out of the gate to succeed. I think Windows Phone 7 has a lot going for it, especially with its XBox Live and Microsoft Office connectivity. But I generally think that consumers respond best to honesty, and these numbers stink of evasiveness.
So what if sales started out slow? Android sales started out really slow—so slow that I wondered if it had failed in early 2009—and look at it now. Microsoft could very well say, "Windows Phone sales are slowly ramping up, but we thought 2011 would be the big year all along. This is a long-term play for us, and we see big new opportunities opening up as Sprint and Verizon get their phones this spring. We've put the full weight of Microsoft behind this platform, which means we can afford to be patient." But instead they're touting misleading numbers.
Microsoft seems to be the only major smartphone vendor using this weaselly "shipped" language. Apple reports phones sold (16.2 million in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Apple.) Nokia reports phones sold; so does BlackBerry. And before you complain that those are phone manufacturers, not OS licensers, Google reports overall Android phones sold (about 200,000 per day as of August, according to Eric Schmidt.)
AT&T told me they don't want to say how many Windows Phones they've sold. I asked Microsoft and T-Mobile for more details on how many Windows Phones have actually been sold; I'll update this story when I get their responses.