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Verizon iPhone Won't Lure AT&T Users Right Away, Say Analysts

 & Chloe Albanesius Executive Editor, News

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Verizon iPhone announcement

Verizon finally nabbed the Apple iPhone Tuesday, but analysts said the news is really a bigger victory for Apple than Verizon, and that consumers might hold off buying the new Verizon iPhone 4 as they wait for the next iteration of the smartphone – and the end of their existing contracts.

"I think the bulk of the sales of this device are going to existing Verizon customers [who] are highly desirous of the iPhone, but unwilling to give up the Verizon network," Charles Golvin, a principal analyst with Forrester Research, said in a phone interview.

T-Mobile and Sprint customers who have avoided the AT&T network will also make the jump, but the third and smallest group will probably be current AT&T users, Golvin said.

Most AT&T iPhone users are locked into a two-year contract, and while technophiles might snap up every new Apple product the minute it hits store shelves, the average consumer can't really afford to pay a hefty early termination fee and buy a new device, he said.

Instead, Golvin said, the "real battleground" will be the next version of the iPhone, which will likely be released this summer. As a result, this whole Verizon deal is really a victory for Apple. "The message here is, 'hey, we've got another channel for selling the iPhone," he said.

Will Stofega, program director for mobile device technology and trends at IDC, said the deal will also help Apple battle the growing influence of Google's Android operating system. Just last week, comScore reported that Android had surpassed Apple to become the number two mobile OS in the U.S.

"Android's been taking off" and Apple "needs more distribution points," Stofega said in a phone interview.

It's not exactly a bad deal for Verizon either, Stofega continued. "It's a good way for Verizon to keep its narrow lead in wireless subscribers." Even without the iPhone, Verizon has done "pretty damn well," but the iPhone will definitely help boost that success.

"Verizon is going to need more users from outside [its existing subscriber base] to cement that lead," Stofega said. "It will help them get additional revenue, but what they're really hoping for is brand-new, first-time subscribers."

Ross Rubin, executive director of industry analysis at NPD Group, meanwhile, suggested that Verizon and AT&T also keep their eyes on T-Mobile and Sprint.

"While AT&T and Verizon can move markets, Sprint and T-Mobile have significant influence," Rubin wrote in a blog post, pointing to their combined 28 percent market share. "Until iOS carrier distribution matches Android's or RIM's, the iPhone will fight as a handheld with a hand held behind its back."

Rubin suggested that AT&T and Verizon will essentially switch focuses – Verizon will now have the iPhone and "AT&T will court Android at least as aggressively in 2011 as Verizon did in 2010," he wrote.

Gene Munster, a senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray, suggested this week that Verizon might cannibalize up to 6.5 million iPhones from AT&T. Overall, the addition of Verizon to Apple's carrier lineup could help boost Apple's iPhones sales by 2.5 million in 2011, Munster wrote in a client note.

In a Tuesday report, Munster said the Verizon iPhone news is the "single biggest lever Apple has to pull" in 2011. Some details, like the fact that pricing is the same on Verizon and AT&T and that Verizon added a mobile hotspot option, "may positively surprise investors," he said.

Jan Dawson, chief telecom analyst at Ovum, meanwhile, suggested that the immediate impact of the Verizon announcement "will be somewhat muted," and that there will be a gradual shift among providers over the next 18 months.

For more details, see PCMag's hands on with the Verizon iPhone 4 and the slideshow above.

About Our Expert

Chloe Albanesius

Chloe Albanesius

Executive Editor, News

My Experience

I started out covering tech policy in DC for The National Journal, where my beat included state-level tech news and all the congressional hearings and FCC meetings I could handle. I later covered Wall Street trading tech before switching gears to consumer tech. I now lead PCMag's news coverage.

My Areas of Expertise

Getting my start in DC means I still have a soft spot for tech policy; Congressional hearings can sometimes be as entertaining as a Bravo reality show, for better or worse. But PCMag is all about the technology we use every day, as well as keeping an eye out for the trends that will shape the industry in the years ahead (or flop on arrival). I've covered the rise of social media, the iOS vs. Android wars, the cord-cutting revolution that's now left us with hefty streaming bills, and the effort to stuff artificial intelligence into every product you could imagine. This job has taken me to CES in Vegas (one too many times), IFA in Berlin, and MWC in Barcelona. I also drove a Tesla 1,000 miles out west as part of our Best Mobile Networks project. Of late, my focus is on our hard-working team of reporters at PCMag, guiding and editing their robust coverage.

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