I think I know for whom the Windows Phone 7 ringtone tolls, and it is our old friend, the Zune player. My guess is that Microsoft won't discontinue the Zune lineup (yet), but I do believe we have seen our last new Zune.
Instead, Microsoft will focus on getting Zune software into various mobile devices from partnered manufacturers, via Windows Phone 7. It makes a lot of sense—software is Microsoft's strength, and while the Zune HD was an excellent device, it simply didn't matter because Apple's iPod lineup virtually devoured the entire MP3 player/portable media player market.
If Microsoft put its best foot forward with the Zune HD (and I think it did), why repeat the move when the numbers show people didn't buy very many of the devices? One of the greatest strengths of the Zune lineup was the excellent user interface, and by the looks of the new Windows Phone 7 devices shown off today in New York, that software, or a variant thereof, is alive and well in a bunch of new phones.
In the age of Internet rumor, let me say that I am making an educated guess—this isn't based on inside knowledge from the Microsoft team. But I can lay my argument out pretty succinctly.
- The Zune HD was launched in September 2009, within a week or so of the 2009 iPod announcement. (The Zune HD was announced in May, but available to reviewers and consumers in September.) The prior year in September we had new Zune players, as well. This year? Crickets. If Microsoft were rolling out a new Zune, I think we would have seen it by now, or it would have implied that one was coming.
- There really seems to be no reason to continue the line, as other competitors have figured out. Apple has, without a doubt, won the MP3 player war. (Notice the manufacturers that, except for budget offerings, are out of the race: Samsung, Creative, to a certain extent, SanDisk.) The next frontier is tablets, and the current frontier is phones. The MP3 Player market is no longer up for grabs—unless we're talking sub-$100 players, but that's small potatoes.
- Microsoft has a better chance of taking Apple's iPhone on by making Windows Phone 7 its top priority and letting partners focus on the hardware. Not that the Zune was bad, but putting Zune capabilities inside an alluring phone gives Microsoft a fighting chance of biting into the iPhone market—a market that, with Android phones gaining popularity, is certainly a far more open competition than the MP3 player market.
That about sums it up. Any minute now, I expect to get a phone call from a Zune rep explaining that Zune is not actually dead, and although they have no official comment at this time, Windows Phone 7 is just the beginning of Zune. I would actually agree—as long as we're talking about software.
From a hardware perspective, however, I think Zune is over—and that saddens me. Competition keeps the big shots like Apple on their toes, and the Zune HD was an awesome product…it just arrived on the scene too late. Apple iTunes was already ingrained in most users' heads by the time Microsoft rolled out its equally user-friendly Zune Marketplace.
In the name of keeping things interesting, I sure hope I'm wrong, and if Microsoft gives me a reason to believe I am, I'll let you know as soon as I can. Until then, R.I.P. Zune.