AT&T's planned acquisition of T-Mobile makes perfect sense for both companies. When it comes to making money in the wireless business, scale is king. The more subscribers and spectrum you have, the more money you can make. The T-Mobile deal helps AT&T gain both. And yet, from a consumer perspective, it is hard to see any potential upside. In fact, it seems likely that consumers are going to get totally screwed here.

AT&T currently has 95 million subscribers, thanks in part to its gobbling up Cingular a few years back. Adding T-Mobile's 33 million subscribers will make it the largest wireless carrier with 128 million subscribers. That will put it well ahead of both Verizon and Sprint. All by itself, there isn't anything wrong with that. Somebody has to be the biggest. And yet, it seems to me that cutting the number of carriers from four to three presents a tipping point for the industry. One that can only lead to higher prices, worse customer support, and less innovation.

The carriers already exert more control over the wireless industry than any other players in the market. If you doubt it, just look at how well Google did at selling the Nexus One outside the confines of carrier-approved channels. Didn't go very far. And the other innovative carriers to experiment with the latest handsets? That was T-Mobile. Not much chance of that continuing with AT&T at the helm.

And what about T-Mobile's competitive pricing? Right now, T-Mobile offers an entry-level data plan for just $10/month. AT&T plans start at $20. Which pricing model do you think will be used going forward?

But at least Sprint and Verizon would still be major players, right? Let's look at what a post-merger world looks like for Sprint. It isn't pretty. Sprint becomes the third largest carrier with about 11 percent of the market—hardly a position of strength. Sprint stock is down 13% so far today, and it doesn't seem likely to improve in the weeks ahead.

Verizon and Sprint both use CDMA technology—how long before those two decide to partner up? Are two nationwide carriers enough to make a competitive wireless market?

To be fair, there are other carriers that offer service locally. Cricket Wireless and Metro PCS have done great things for the markets they are in, but they aren't nationwide and don't have enough subscribers to really move the needle when it comes to pricing. The bottom line is, post-merger there will be two major wireless carriers in the U.S. and a third struggling to stay relevant. That may not be illegal, but it certainly won't be more competitive.

This wouldn't bother me so much if wireless connectivity wasn't so damn important. Mobile broadband is the best chance we have to break the near-monopolies that cable companies and telcos have in delivering broadband service. In my apartment, I have precisely one option for broadband: Comcast. No DSL. No rival cable provider. Only with a MiFi card and a mobile broadband account do I have a real choice. But how competitive will mobile broadband be when there are only three players on the market?

Not only is the smartphone the hub for most professional users, there are a significant number of Americans for whom their phone is their only connection to the Internet. The greatest opportunity to close the Digital Divide isn't by putting laptops in every school, it is by putting phones in every pocket. The pricing has to be competitive.

Regulators are obviously going to review this deal, but if I had to put money on this I bet that they approve it. There are just too many winners: AT&T, Deutsche Telkom, and all the stockholders. And there is no guarantee that T-Mobile can thrive independently. Even so, it is hard for me to see a scenario where the consumer comes out ahead.

The question now is: how much do the interests of consumers matter when there is $39 billion on the table?

Care to guess? Let me know in the comments below.

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