A new story today highlights how more app developers are shunning Android, for a variety of concerns. This should be a red alert to Google, but the company still isn't taking the problem seriously.
I've already taken heat from some readers for past Android columns. Apparently, according to these folks, anyone mentioning Android fragmentation is secretly working for Apple or otherwise has it in the tank for the iPhone. That's insane. Android is a fantastic OS with tremendous benefits. I've covered it extensively in How to Switch from an iPhone to an Android phone. I want this OS to continue to succeed, and not slide into irrelevance, because when consumers have this much choice, we all win.
Here are Android's current issues as I see them—and please, you're welcome to disagree or augment them, in either direction in the comments:
1. The largest problem remains fragmentation. Different Android phones run different versions of the OS, and there's no clear path forward to Ice Cream Sandwich (ICS) for a large swath of existing and even current model Android phones, much less Jelly Bean or whatever comes next. Brand new phones at the retail counter still run the 16-month-old Android 2.3 Gingerbread OS, for example.
2. It's tough to bring ICS to existing phones since carriers add lots of bloatware and branding to each phone. Carriers do this because they don't want to become "dumb pipes"; they'd rather distinguish and monetize their services as much as possible. Unfortunately, getting a new version of Android to work with all that junk takes development resources. Apple avoided this problem from the beginning, since it prohibited carriers from doing this from day one, starting with AT&T.
3. It's also tough to bring ICS to existing phones because phone vendors want to differentiate their devices. They don't want to compete to sell you a bunch of identical touch-screen slabs, because then it would just be a race to the bottom on price. Instead, phone vendors add various UI enhancements and features that require development time to create, implement, and support down the road. Apple avoided this problem from the beginning, since they're the only manufacturer of the iPhone.
Combining these three issues, and the way the economics work out, there's little interest for carriers and phone vendors alike to spend months bringing ICS up to spec on each phone when they can sell you a new phone.
It's About the Apps
Why does this all even matter? In a word, apps.
If you're happy with the current roster of Android apps, or if you use Android tablets primarily for Web browsing and media playback, it's not a problem for you. But right now, third-party Android apps rely much more on ad-subsidized free versions than paid versions. Fewer people buy paid Android apps. On the iPad, more people buy paid apps. The thing is, for free, ad-subsidized apps to be economically viable, you have to sell a lot of them—otherwise advertisers won't pay high enough rates for the ads.
Think about it this way: If you're a developer and you sell 500 copies of a $4 app, you made $2,000 gross receipts, minus 30 percent for Google's cut—not amazing, but you can at least cover some costs and work on the next version, or on a second app. But if 500 people, or even 1,000 people, download and use the free version, you'll bring in maybe $4 a month. You won't get a profitable result without hundreds of thousands of downloads and lots of ad clicks, which pretty much requires you to develop a tremendous hit of an app. Otherwise, there's a good chance you won't make anything.
The tablet app situation is even worse. Google has a specific API called "fragments" that lets developers set up different versions of the UI for a phone app and a tablet app. But virtually no one is using them, and Google isn't enforcing it in any way. Google also refuses to define a tablet app as a separate entity. Plus, Android tablets run their own bevy of OS versions, including a unique one (Honeycomb) that has since been abandoned. The result: The iPad Wins Because Android Tablet Apps Suck: An Illustrated Guide.
Combine that with all the extra QA required to make the app run on dozens of hardware variations, plus multiple operating systems dating back several years because consumers can't upgrade their phones, and you can see the problem.
Google Needs to Define Standards
To the people who say that none of this is an issue and that they're just fine with what Android is capable of: You're missing the point. It makes a great sound bite to say Apple fans are iSheep, or that they only care about design, or that they're too dumb to know what a real phone or tablet is like. The thing is, Apple may be controlling and domineering and restrictive, but it also thought through all of these business-side problems ahead of time. Developers have a single store to buy apps. There are only a few phone and tablet variations, so developers always know whether their creations will work. Consumers also know, so they have faith in the ecosystem and buy more apps.
What's driving me nuts is that the solution is clear, but Google doesn't seem to be interested in it. It is: Define and enforce more basic, hardline criteria for app development than you already have. Note: This doesn't mean turning into Apple, and rejecting all of those lovely Atari emulators and browsers and OS utilities Android enthusiasts like, or taking away all the great free features like voice-enabled GPS navigation, super-large 720p high definition touch screens, 4G LTE, and slide-out hardware QWERTY keyboards that the iPhone lacks in favor of a single form factor. Android does not need to look like the iPhone. The Android platform's diversity is one of its greatest strengths.
Instead, it means: Here's how a tablet app is defined. Here's how a phone app is defined. Here is where you can sell them. Here is how you make money. And, for the love of all things holy, here is how phone vendors and carriers must allow for OS upgrades in a timely fashion, for at least two years after a phone's initial release.
It Doesn't Look Promising
Four months after the first Ice Cream Sandwich-powered phone, the Samsung Galaxy Nexus on Verizon, it's still the only one running that OS. On all of the top seven major wireless carriers in the U.S.
Until Google steps in, the situation will deteriorate. The iPhone has its own issues, with which many Android fans are familiar. But Apple is on an unbelievably high trajectory, so it's not like it's doing something wrong that needs correcting this minute. Google's situation with Android is murkier, and could ultimately affect all of the phone vendors and carriers involved. For example, trend lines look great for Android phones, and at least in developing countries if not the U.S., they also look good for Android tablet market share. Besides, if only a few app developers defected from Android, that wouldn't be news; there are thousands of them.
But the increasing number of defections, along with persistent fragmentation that no vendor involved is taking seriously, signal a much bigger problem. And without Google bringing some focus to the situation, it's not going to go away.
For more from Jamie, follow him on Twitter: @jlendino.