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Kindle Fire Enters a Peaking Pad Market

 & John C. Dvorak Columnist, PCMag.com

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This week, Amazon refreshed its Kindle e-readers and released a new iPad competitor, the Kindle Fire.

To begin, the media has ignored the rather dubious name of Kindle Fire. Kindle actually means "to begin burning, set a fire, ignite," hence the idea is that the Kindle would ignite or start a new market.

But Kindle Fire is redundant. It's like going to buy the new Automobile Car or the Flying Airplane. Equally as senseless is the phrase "snack food," and that's actually used.

That said, I'm not sure what I'd call the thing since Amazon wanted to ride the Kindle moniker for its brand name.

So, what is the point of this device and why is everyone so jacked up over it? Prognosticators predict that it will kill everything except the Apple iPad. I might agree if it were selling for $99, rather than $199. The fact is, players that want to enter the market will merely lower their prices to $199. I'd even expect to see 10-inch units for $199 within six months. The Kindle Fire has a smaller 7-inch screen.

However, looming evidence suggests that the whole pad market may be peaking. People who wanted or needed pads are all in and often own more than one pad. I'm seeing less and less pads at meetings as people return to their laptops.

Serious iPad users heavily consume of media of all sorts. They have a slew of subscriptions to all the magazines and newspapers that they once received by mail. Most other users happily use their laptops or desktop machines to read alternative web-based content.

Still, I'm not absolutely sure that these magazines and newspapers will make an actual living selling iPad subscriptions to the masses.

Typically, a magazine that sells millions of copies in print is selling around 10,000 iPad subscriptions. These numbers reflect the experience readers want—people still enjoy curling up with a magazine—and the price they will pay.

These iPad magazines have to make a decision: Either correct the pricing issues, or give in on the idea.

Advertising generates most of the revenues for print magazines. The subscription price you pay may contribute to the profits, but generally just covers the ink, paper, printing and distribution costs.

With an iPad magazine, the paper costs fall to zero, as does the ink and printing. Distribution expenditures include the cost of the bandwidth needed to deliver one copy of the magazine as a data file, which is basically nil.

The main expenses are now preparation, content aggregation, and layout—the basic organizational overhead—which advertising should cover. So, to bring in more money, glossies need to increase readership to attract more advertisers. How do any expect to do this unless the cost of the subscription is as close to free as possible?

Business Insider cites my favorite example: Condé Nast offers The New Yorker for $59.99 per year on the iPad. (A $10 discount from the print edition.)"

Really? Are you kidding me? It should be $1 per year, at most.

Watching old media venture into the new media scene with old media ideas is kind of fun for a while, but it gets tiresome fast.

Will magazines ever get a clue and will the pad devices provide them with some new income stream that is more than a faddish moment in history? Nothing is even close to being resolved. All I know for sure is that some of what I am seeing is daffy.


You can Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter @therealdvorak.

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About Our Expert

John C. Dvorak

John C. Dvorak

Columnist, PCMag.com

John C. Dvorak is a columnist for PCMag.com and the co-host of the twice weekly podcast, the No Agenda Show. His work is licensed around the world. Previously a columnist for Forbes, PC/Computing, Computer Shopper, MacUser, Barrons, the DEC Professional as well as other newspapers and magazines. Former editor and consulting editor for InfoWorld, he also appeared in the New York Times, LA Times, Philadelphia Enquirer, SF Examiner, and the Vancouver Sun. He was on the start-up team for C/Net as well as ZDTV. At ZDTV (and TechTV) he hosted Silicon Spin for four years doing 1000 live and live-to-tape TV shows. His Internet show Cranky Geeks was considered a classic. John was on public radio for 8 years and has written over 5000 articles and columns as well as authoring or co-authoring 14 books. He's the 2004 Award winner of the American Business Editors Association's national gold award for best online column of 2003. That was followed up by an unprecedented second national gold award from the ABEA in 2005, again for the best online column (for 2004). He also won the Silver National Award for best magazine column in 2006 as well as other awards. Follow him on Twitter @therealdvorak.

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